The direction of history

For thousands of years, we have been heading towards a closer integration of the world. Humanity is converging intellectually, economically and politically. Religions and ideologies can unify different peoples under the same ideas. Trade and money enabled cooperation between strangers all over the globe. The increased collaboration between nation-states can pave the way for a world government.¹

Today, a global elite of business people, politicians, bureaucrats, engineers, journalists, scientists, opinion makers, writers and artists runs the world. No matter where they live, whether it is New York, Buenos Aires, Shanghai, Dubai or Cape Town, they increasingly have similar interests, viewpoints, cultures, and lifestyles. They often have more in common with each other than their fellow countrymen.¹

Doing business is now a global affair, even for small businesses, as supply chains cover the globe. The same applies to the government. Issues like trade rules, global warming, human rights, disease control, organised crime and financial markets require international agreement and cooperation. In the old world order, states were sovereign. Today, states feel increasing pressures to conform to global standards.

Globalisation

People everywhere around the globe are now interconnected. They cooperate and compete on a global scale. The first long-distance trade, the silk trade, between China and Rome began 2,000 years ago. Later, Arab traders brought spices from the Indies to Europe. The next step towards globalisation started 500 years ago when Portuguese explorers set sail for Africa to find new trade routes to the Indies. In 1492, Columbus discovered America while trying to do the same. In the following centuries, European colonisation and trade gradually integrated the world.

With the Industrial Revolution, globalisation began in earnest, and the pace of globalisation has accelerated. Marx and Engels wrote in the Communist Manifesto of 1848 that is even more correct today,

Because the bourgeoisie needs a constantly expanding market, it settles and establishes connections all over the globe. Production and consumption have taken on a cosmopolitan character in every country. That is true for materials and for intellectual production, as national sovereignty and isolationism become less and less possible to sustain. The bourgeoisie draws even the most barbaric nations into civilisation and compels all nations to adopt its mode of production. It creates a world after its own image.

World War II ravaged Europe and shifted the balance of power towards the United States. The United States began promoting free trade and democracy and fought against the Soviet Union and China to contain communism. To that aim, the United States and its allies fought wars, for instance, in Vietnam, and supported dictators as fighting communism received priority over spreading democracy. The United States supported European integration and military cooperation in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). The United Nations (UN) were also an American initiative. Some of the most well-known subdivisions of the UN are the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the World Bank. These institutions were part of the US-dominated world order.

There was a plan behind this. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an internationally oriented think tank of prominent figures in business, science and politics in the United States. The organisation has been an instigator of these developments. The CFR started in 1921 when the US was isolationist and European colonial powers dominated the world. In the 1930s, the CFR received funds from the Rockefeller Foundation and Ford Foundation. Before World War II ended, the CFR, in cooperation with the US government, began making plans for a new world order after the war.

The planners thought protectionism had worsened the Great Depression and caused World War II, and prosperity was the key to political and economic stability. They believed open markets would promote democracy and the United States would benefit from prosperity elsewhere. After the war, European countries received loans to rebuild their economies and buy American products. By helping other countries, the United States gained economic and political influence. Because of the communist threat, the United States built a military presence in different corners of the world.

The end of World War II marked the beginning of the US-dominated global financial order. The planners believed stable exchange rates would promote trade. They implemented fixed exchange rates at the monetary conference at Bretton Woods. The gold-backed US dollar became the international reserve currency. This system remained in place until 1971. From then on, market forces determined exchange rates, but the US dollar remained the world’s primary reserve currency.

Take-off

The post-war world envisioned in Washington became a reality. It was a remarkable feat of geopolitical planning and another step in globalisation. But globalisation switched into an even higher gear in recent decades. That was not primarily the result of a deliberate design by planners. It was the outcome of several converging economic, political and technological developments. These were:

• the rise of neoliberalism around 1980;
• the fall of communism around 1990;
• personal computers and digital data storage;
• optical fibre and the Internet, making it possible to connect people around the globe;
• global standards for data exchange, making it possible for every computer to exchange data with every other computer;
• new software enabling cooperation between people and businesses around the globe.

Neoliberalism emerged in the 1970s and dominated politics from the 1980s onwards, personified by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. In the 1970s, the Western economies were stagnating. Unions had a lot of power, and many businesses were faltering. The welfare state had become a burden on state finances. Several think thanks pressed for lower taxes and deregulation. Since then, governments left more to markets, curtailed labour rights, reduced welfare, and lowered taxes for businesses and wealthy people. Wealth and income inequality increased while jobs moved to low-wage countries.

The fall of communism further spurred globalisation. The Berlin Wall fell in 1989. A few years later, the Soviet Union dissolved, and the European Union enlarged. From then on, there seemed no alternative to capitalism.² China, India, Russia and other countries realised they had to compete in the global markets and transformed their economies accordingly. India now specialises in services and information technology. China became the global industrial powerhouse. Russia specialised in energy exports.

Computers and data storage allow us to store documents and other data like pictures and recordings. In the 1980s, the personal computer entered many homes. Businesses also used computers, but exchanging data between computers was still arduous because computers were not interconnected, and software suppliers used different data formats.²

That changed with the Internet. If you had a personal computer, you could view any web page anywhere. Netscape became a killer application that made the Internet very popular. Investors realised the Internet would change the world, and they could make enormous profits. It resulted in a massive over-investment in everything related to the Internet during the 2000 Internet bubble. One area of over-investment was in optical fibre, so the price of data transport dropped dramatically.²

Standards for data exchange emerged. Software suppliers began to focus on facilitating the interaction, competition and cooperation of people around the globe, effectively enabling the world to turn into a global village where people everywhere can participate. It transformed the way people cooperate. The traditional way of organising is top-down via command and control. The new way of organising is via teams of people sharing responsibility for a task or a product, making more complex cooperation possible. China and India developed and integrated into the global economy.

As businesses used more cheap overseas labour, workers in developed nations faced job insecurity and lagging wages. On the other hand, hundreds of millions of people in China and India saw their living standards improve. Globalisation may have been the best development aid ever. But the real winners are the oligarchs all around the world. A 2019 Oxfam report points out that the world’s 26 wealthiest people own as much as the poorest 50%. A 2022 Credit Suisse Wealth Report states that 1.2% of adults own 47.8% of the world’s wealth, while 53.2% must do with 1.1%.

Global cooperation

The Western elites have promoted international cooperation and globalisation. Most elite members believe they act for the benefit of humankind and that we need more international cooperation or even a global government. A single world government can be the end of war. The British politician Denis Healey attended Bilderberg Conferences, in which elite members gathered in secrecy. He told The Guardian,

To say we were striving for a one-world government is exaggerated, but not wholly unfair. Those of us in Bilderberg felt we couldn’t go on forever fighting one another for nothing, killing people and rendering millions homeless. So, we felt that a single community throughout the world would be a good thing.³

The elite is, first and foremost, a social network. Elite members have friends, and they have friends who have friends. Meetings at Bilderberg and the World Economic Forum influence political agendas. For instance, the Bilderberg people discussed the European Union in advance. It helped the elites agree on European cooperation and integration. That seemed a good plan after two devastating world wars.

The problem is not primarily that the elites make poor decisions. The problem is that they have so much wealth and power. And that is, to a significant degree, due to globalisation. Complexity and scale promote an increasing divide between ordinary people and the elites. For instance, Amazon has a broader choice of books at lower prices than your local bookstore. Purchases at Amazon benefit Amazon’s billionaire CEO and Wall Street at the expense of small businesses and the local economy.

The rise of China and India

In 1977, Chinese leaders realised that communist China needed to embrace capitalism. For two decades, progress was slow. That changed in the 1990s, but doing business in China remained problematic until China became a member of the World Trade Organisation in 2001. From then on, China conformed to international law and trade practices, so it became attractive to do business with China. Corporations moved their production to China, and China became the world’s industrial powerhouse.

Half the world’s population lives in Asia. China has nearly twice as many people as the European Union and the United States combined. And so do India and Africa. If people everywhere around the globe obtain an equal portion of wealth, the relative importance of the European Union and the United States will decline. The Chinese economy could be the biggest in the world already.

Chinese leaders prepare for a New World Order under Chinese leadership. China invests heavily in foreign countries. China’s policies include the economic colonisation of developing countries like the Western countries did previously. For instance, China grants loans to developing countries to build their infrastructure. Chinese investments help develop African countries. But if they fail to repay their loans to China, China may take possession of assets like mines, harbours and corporations as payment. If India follows suit, it could become China’s contender.

Chinese leaders are preparing for a New World Order under Chinese leadership. China invests heavily in foreign countries. China’s policies include the economic colonisation of developing countries like the Western countries did previously. For instance, China grants loans to developing countries to build their infrastructure. If they fail to pay off these loans, China may take possession of assets like mines, harbours and corporations as payment. If India follows suit, it may become China’s contender. At the same time, the importance of nations is declining, and they may even disappear in the future.

Deep state

Politicians come and go, but other officials remain within the bureaucracy for a prolonged time. Among them are specialised technocrats who have the expertise. Bureaucratic institutions require a mandate to function, and political interference can undermine their effectiveness. Ideally, the technocrats advise politicians and provide them with information. But bureaucracies can become like fiefdoms with their agendas. Chinese emperors already faced an unresponsive bureaucracy 2,000 years ago.⁶ In such cases, the question is whether bureaucracies protect us from incompetent leaders or they scheme against the public interest, for instance, by hiding information.

Interest groups can capture the government to profiteer at the expense of the public. Lobbyists and think tanks represent the interests of businesses that live off government contracts or benefit from favourable legislation, for instance, Big Pharma, the financial sector and the Military-Industrial Complex in the United States. Lobbyists work covertly via social networks to influence politicians and other officials. The United States political system is particularly corrupt as politicians fund their campaigns with donations from corporations, interest groups and wealthy individuals. US politicians represent their donors, so the likelihood of passing a law does not depend on voter preferences.⁷

The founding fathers of the United States designed the state as a constitutional republic, which means that the elites run the country. Shortly after that, the United States became the first democracy. But the checks and balances against democracy, such as the electoral college and a constitutional court, remained in place. These checks and balances made improving the state’s institutions more challenging. Several European countries democratised later and did not have obstacles that blocked improvements. But Europe now has a powerful European Union with a poor democratic foundation.

The United States looks more like an oligarchic republic than a democracy. Bribes and lawsuits, rather than democratic votes and negotiated compromises, decide issues, allowing the elites to run the country. The founding fathers intended the government to be small. And that worked before the Industrial Revolution. A deep-rooted suspicion of government with a large section of the population prevents Americans from taking action to improve their government. This distrust is justifiable, but it also becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. A better and less corrupt government is possible. Complexity and scale make us dependent on large centralised institutions.

Revolution

The New World Order is the name of a conspiracy theory. The elite supposedly has a secret plan to create a New World Order where we will be mere serfs. The United States government designed the post-war world order with the help of think tanks like the CFR. This order includes organisations like the United Nations and the World Bank. But globalisation is also an inevitable natural development. Globalisation promotes complexity and scale, which benefits the elites. Today, the post-war liberal world order dominated by the West is on its way to the dustbin of history.

After World War II, the United States toppled democratically elected governments and supported dictators all over the world while claiming to promote human rights, freedom and democracy. The United States fought several wars and interfered with others. Estimates indicate US forces killed nearly 20 million people since World War II.⁸ Geopolitics is a cynical game. The result is hypocrisy. If freedom, human rights and democracy can harm the West’s interests, these values suddenly lose their importance. The regimes in China and Russia do not claim to respect human rights, nor do they demand from other nations to do so.

The mainstream media practise self-censorship by omitting or under-reporting relevant news stories. For instance, US mainstream media hardly reported the suffering of the Iraqi people during the Iraq war. Many people distrust the mainstream media with their establishment links. Secret services influence the narratives appearing in the mainstream media. On the other hand, Fox News became an outlet for extreme views and conspiracy theories. It contributes to the anger that has been building for decades.

During the French Revolution, mobs overturned the corrupt old regime. A reign of terror followed. People looked for a saviour. Napoleon Bonaparte brought stability to France but plunged Europe into war. The French spread Enlightenment ideas over the continent. After Napoleon lost power, the old order did not return to France. The quality of the French state had greatly improved, with corruption seriously reduced. Revolution is a last resort, a choice of desperation, but it may be our only option. What will the future bring?

The Great Collapse is coming. Without a comprehensive plan, it will be chaos. The solution must be global. It should not be about desires and ambitions but about limits and restrictions. Simplification is a more natural way to deal with these issues than centralised planning and coercion. Simplification has downsides, such as less comfort. But we might live lives that accord better with our nature.

Latest revision: 14 December 2023

1. Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind. Yuval Noah Harari (2014). Harvil Secker.
2. The World Is Flat 3.0. Thomas Friedman (2007). Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
3. Who pulls the strings? (part 3). The Guardian (2001).
4. Memoirs. David Rockefeller (2002).
5. World’s 26 richest people own as much as poorest 50%, says Oxfam. The Guardian (2019).
6. The Origins of Political Order: From prehuman times to the French Revolution. Francis Fukuyama (2011). Profile Books.
7. Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens. Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page (2014).
8. US Government Has Killed More Than 20 Million People In 37 ‘Victim Nations’ Since WW2. Klark Jouss. msyc1.wordpress.com (2022).