Cyclists. By FaceMePLS from The Hague, The Netherlands - Buitenleven / Country Life. Wikmedia Commons. CC BY 2.0.

Something Went Wrong Somewhere

The bullshit economy

Today, few people produce all that we need. The remainder have found bullshit jobs in the bullshit economy. In several advanced economies, 1-3% of the population works in agriculture. In the past, that was over 90%. They produced barely enough for their own needs. Now these few per cent make the food for everyone, and more people suffer from obesity than famine, while the world’s population has increased from less than one billion to over eight billion. The efficiency increase is astounding. But if a few people do all that we need, then the rest are transforming energy and resources into waste and pollution by producing non-essential goods and services.

These activities make sense because they generate profits for investors or serve some common good. In the current political economy, some are essential, so you can’t simply terminate all these activities. The economic system is a system. Actions have consequences, many of which we can’t foresee. Still, we could manage without gadgets, social media, air travel, and many other things. It is hard to say precisely what the bullshit economy is, but most of it concentrates on the following areas:

  • law and consultancy;
  • communication, information and media;
  • policy making and bureaucracy;
  • management;
  • entertainment and tourism;
  • finance and trade;
  • technology, computers and software.

Usually, most of the attention goes to the government, so policy making, bureaucracy, and also welfare. That blinds us from what happens in the private sector. In ‘advanced’ economies, bullshit probably generates more than 50% of GDP, and it might be as much as 75%. And so a banker once noted,

A cyclist is a disaster for the country’s economy. He doesn’t buy cars and doesn’t borrow money to buy. He doesn’t pay for insurance policies. He doesn’t buy fuel or pay for maintenance and repairs. He doesn’t use paid parking. He doesn’t require multi-lane highways. He doesn’t get fat. Healthy people are neither needed nor beneficial for the economy. They don’t buy medicine. They don’t go to hospitals or doctors. Nothing gets added to the country’s gross domestic product. On the contrary, every new McDonald’s restaurant creates at least 30 jobs: 10 cardiologists, 10 dentists, 10 dietitians and nutritionists, and, obviously, people who work at the restaurant itself.

Now you get the picture. The bullshit economy is about making money, not providing needs. Returns in agriculture are meagre compared to those of tech giants. And we could survive without tech giants, but not without food. To illustrate the money-generating power of the bullshit economy, you can compare the returns on an investment in the Chinese stock markets versus the US stock markets. If you had invested $1,000 in the MSCI China in 2011, in a real economy that produces things, you would have had $1,670 by November 2025.

Had you instead put your money in the S&P 500, in a bullshit economy of social media, lawsuits, unaffordable healthcare, Hollywood, finance, vampire capital scams, marketing and sales, you would have had $6,700. And that was the timeframe during which China caught up to, or even overtook, the United States. At least, the rich are doing fine. The latest hype is artificial intelligence. Soon, capitalists may no longer need workers. That vision of a coming capitalist paradise may have kept the stock market going.

Social networks, retail and financial services depend on physical infrastructure, such as roads and electricity grids. Without concrete, copper and fibre optics, there would be no data centres, no electricity, no internet, and no parcel deliveries. The bullshit economy depends on physical labour and infrastructure. But the money is not in physical labour and infrastructure. A few mega corporations, such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Amazon, reap the benefits, while nothing they do is something anyone needed fifty years ago. Bullshit is where the money is. In this sense, the US economy has become the most ‘advanced’. It helped that the US has always been a nation of salespeople.

And so, yet another Wall Street wiz kid developed the Degenerate Economy Index, which tracks companies enabling gambling, day trading, and memecoin speculation. By October 2025, it had returned 130% since its inception in May 2023. The index includes 13 public companies providing computing power, mobile devices, cloud services, and social networks, as well as Bitcoin. The 130% return over 18 months occurred during a period of market uncertainty, rising interest rates, the collapse of regional banks, and the flailing commercial real estate market. The growth came from bullshit.1

In the Financial Times, a fellow named Tek Parikh claimed that fifty years ago, the assets held by the top 500 US companies were mainly tangible, such as factories, equipment, and inventory. Today, most of their assets are intangible, including intellectual property, brand value, and marketing networks. In the US, spending on intangible assets surpassed tangible investments as a share of GDP in the late 1990s. The gap has widened ever since. These intangibles drive US productivity growth. Parikh excitedly asserts that this transformation helps to explain the high concentration, exceptionalism and bubble-like valuations in the US stock market.

Information technology unlocks value, which is a marketing term for selling more bullshit or intensifying the competition. Buying a widget for €10 and selling it for €20 because you own a brand generates more wealth than labouring to make it for €8 and selling it for €10. A brand is capital that makes dirt look like gold to people willing to pay the price of gold for it, so it is something intangible, not a factory. Coca-Cola sells the same soda for five times the price to suckers who buy a ‘Coca-Cola feeling.’ The owners of the brands make producers compete, so producers have low margins, and their employees toil for low salaries in sweatshops. They hire a celebrity to tout the brand’s exclusiveness, and then they rake in the money. It costs a few euros to make a Gucci bag that sells for €2,500.

Social networks, retail and financial services depend on physical infrastructure, such as roads and electricity grids. Without concrete, copper and fibre optics, there would be no data centres, no electricity, no internet, and no parcel deliveries. The bullshit economy depends on physical labour and infrastructure. But the money is not in physical labour and infrastructure. A few mega corporations, such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Amazon, reap the benefits, while nothing they do is something anyone needed fifty years ago. Bullshit is where the money is. In this sense, the US economy has become one of the most ‘advanced,’ leaving Europe to bite the dust.

Yet another Wall Street wiz kid developed the Degenerate Economy Index, which tracks companies enabling gambling, day trading, and memecoin speculation. By October 2025, it had returned 130% since its inception in May 2023. The index includes 13 public companies providing computing power, mobile devices, cloud services, and social networks, as well as Bitcoin. The 130% return over 18 months occurred during a period of market uncertainty, rising interest rates, the collapse of regional banks, and the flailing commercial real estate market.

The current economic organisation squeezes producers of necessities to employ more people in the bullshit economy to make money for investors from transforming natural resources and energy into waste and pollution. Economists call it efficient and wealth creation. Genetic engineering may increase crop yields. That may benefit farmers, but competition in farming keeps average returns low. Most profits go to the corporations that engineered the crops. In a typical bullshit economy, migrants do the hard labour at low wages, as the native population occupies itself with value-creating activities in the bullshit economy because that is where the money is.

No limits to our desires

Humans don’t lack ambition and desires. The Bible tells that Eve and Adam wished to acquire the knowledge of the gods. There are no limits to our imagination. Otherwise, we wouldn’t have lived in someone’s personal fantasy world. When we have enough, we want more. It could be a larger home, a sports car, or an adventurous trip. Had that not been the case, we could have worked a few hours daily, had all we needed, and been content with what we had. Instead of living happily in Paradise, we work hard to make Earth a wasteland by turning energy and raw materials into waste and pollution until we can’t keep up, and robots and artificial intelligence will replace us.

More material wealth and new inventions haven’t made us happier, yet we still hope they will. Between 1970 and 2024, income per person in the US rose a whopping 265%.2 Still, about 40% of Americans can’t make ends meet. Many feel more miserable than their grandparents did fifty years ago. It is also a lifestyle problem that economic growth can’t fix. What was once a luxury or didn’t even exist has become a necessity. But it is not only that. The gains mostly went into the pockets of the rich, and many poor people are hardly better off. It is not the first time that humans sacrificed quality of life for growth.

Our distant forbears switched from hunter-gathering to growing crops and herding cattle. It increased food production. They thought that if they worked harder, they would have more food and a better life. More children survived, so they remained on the brink of famine. Even worse, they had less varied diets, hence poorer health. They lived in unhygienic settlements where they contracted more infectious diseases. They suffered more from violence as farmers had to defend their crops and animals against thieves. Peasants were more miserable than hunter-gatherers who lived before them.3

Since time immemorial, most people had barely enough, so frugality was a virtue and wastefulness a vice. Parents taught their children to be satisfied with what they had, which was not much. Few scraps remained unused. When my father wished for a toy, he would take a branch from a tree and turn it into a toy himself, at least when he had time to play and didn’t have to do chores at the farm. He didn’t know better and was quite satisfied with whatever toy he could create from a tree branch. His mother didn’t throw away food. And if his trousers had a hole, she would mend them. They were poor, but had enough.

Our virtues have evolved. Capitalism is the new religion. The economy must grow, so the excess production needs willing consumers to gobble it all up. Otherwise, investors lose money. To prevent this catastrophe, a new ethic appeared: consumerism. Businesses now use psychology, advertisements, and the media to convince us to indulge ourselves and make more purchases. It is our moral duty to buy more stuff. That is what we want to hear. Today, many children have mountains of toys they never play with. So, here is your bribe, your thirty pieces of silver for which you have betrayed Jesus.

As an ancient Persian story goes, the inventor of chess once presented the game to the king. The king, much impressed by it, offered the inventor any reward he desired. If there were ever to be a top three stupidest promises in the history of humankind, any reward someone wants will surely make it on that list. The inventor asked for a single grain of rice for the first square of the chessboard. Then, two grains for the second, four for the third, until the last square. The king, baffled by this seemingly small price, agreed. His treasurer later made the calculation and regretfully informed the king that it was impossible to pay the inventor. There wasn’t enough rice in the world. The king then did the only sensible thing and ordered the execution of this man for his greed.

Growth is exponential. Increases come on top of previous ones. Economic growth works like that. It is unsustainable. Economists may argue that efficiency improvements reduce resource and energy consumption, but they have been promising that for quite a while now. In reality, the opposite happens due to a secret they don’t tell you about, the Jevons Paradox. Efficiency improvements make products more affordable, allowing more people to purchase them. To add insult to injury, innovation brings new products to the market that we don’t need. In other words, the problem is the combination of efficiency improvements and innovation with our unlimited desires.

An extreme case is information technology. Since the 1970s, computers have become over a million times as powerful. Their capacity and numbers grew far more, perhaps over a trillion times, so computers consume over a million times more energy and resources than they did in the 1970s. And what for? We don’t need computers. Otherwise, people in the 1960s would have died horrible deaths from a lack of information technology. Okay, you may think you will die when TikTok and Snapchat go blank, but if you had studied history, you could have known that countless generations have survived without these apps. And here is where the economic growth nowadays comes from. Somehow, they create a productivity miracle by allowing influencers to sell us more stuff.

Our inner drives

Since the Industrial Revolution, schedules and appointments have determined people’s lives. We work at designated intervals. Trains must be on time. We save time by travelling faster, taking ready-to-eat meals, utilising cleaning services, and buying new items instead of mending them. And we still hurry because of schedules, appointments, and long working hours. As more nations are becoming ‘developed’, more people join the treadmill and become cogs in a system that is a force of its own, over which we have no control.

A 2025 report from Microsoft claims that employees are experiencing an ‘infinite workday’ of constant emails, meetings and notifications. They check their emails as early as 6 AM, juggle meetings through the afternoon and stay online well into the night. According to Microsoft’s data, employees are interrupted every 2 minutes by meetings, emails, or messages, and receive an average of 117 emails and 153 Teams messages each workday. As a result, people are feeling overwhelmed.4

Why can’t we have four workdays of six hours each weekly? Only, the Netherlands comes close with a 32-hour workweek. It must be possible. What is the point of working hard to turn the planet into a wasteland so that artificial intelligence will replace us? What is the point of what we are doing? And why the hurry? Time is money, so we live by the clock. A high standard of living requires capital, thus profits for its owners. Everyone must be present during working hours. A business is only profitable when operations run smoothly. Corporations lose money if raw materials, workers, or repair crews arrive late, and the competition will put them out of business.

Trade and finance drive the system. Economists tell us that trade and finance make products cheaper and provide us with more choices. There are shampoos for every hair type, from several brands. But we work harder or risk losing our jobs to provide better service at a lower cost. Traders buy where it is cheapest, and bankers move their money to where it yields the highest returns, resulting in a competition of everyone against everyone. It is also why several Western countries deindustrialised and became service economies, moving from producing to adding value, which is another term for bullshit.

We work so efficiently that a few people produce everything we need, leaving a surplus of labour in need of employment. Many of us work in bullshit jobs. We may work hard, but we waste resources and energy performing these jobs. Modern societies have become complex, so these jobs make economic sense. And so, you can make money without being useful. You can become an influencer or trade crypto. Free-market proponents say that value is subjective and that the market is the ultimate judge of usefulness, which is also subjective, so nothing more than opinion. It is a fatal mistake. If it is profitable to terminate us, free markets will ensure it will happen.

The system hooks into our inner drives, most notably our natural desires for security, comfort, and status. Squirrels gather and store nuts to get them through the winter. They pile up more nuts than needed. But they aren’t nuts. You can’t be sure what the winter will bring. A few more nuts can make the difference between perishing and survival. We save for a rainy day, retirement, or to give our children a good start in life. Our desire to pile up assets stems from our survival instinct. As you grow older and approach your destined appointment with that scythe-wielding fellow, that urge dissipates.

As a child, I had amassed over a thousand marbles. My gains came at the expense of the other children at school. Yet, I sought to win more. But what was the point? Why wasn’t I content with 60? I never thought of that. The more marbles, the better. Marbles are utterly useless, except that I could marvel at them like Scrooge McDuck could spend time looking at his money in his warehouse. Other children ended up without marbles. And so, I am not that different from a greedy billionaire. And unlike most, I haven’t lost my marbles. Now, that is not a coincidence. Like gold coins, they don’t take that much space.

We are social animals, and we compare ourselves to others. If you want to belong to a group, you often need the things others have or the things they do. If you are a fan of FC Barcelona, you buy items from the fan shop and attend soccer matches. Many of us seek status. For men, status gives mating opportunities. No matter how old, annoying or ugly a billionaire may be, he attracts good-looking fashion models. Those who can afford it buy Gucci bags, Ferrari cars, and Rolex watches, only to show others that they can. These items are as useless as marbles. But it would be a waste to give money to the poor, as that would make them lazy. I also didn’t hand out marbles to those who had lost them.

Our capitalist religion teaches us that we deserve a reward for our excellence in ruining God’s creation. After all, it is hard work. And if we buy these luxuries, some of that wealth will trickle down to the children working in the sweatshops that produce them. It is an inefficient way to end poverty and requires more resources than are available. Humanity’s current lifestyle already requires more than two Earths to sustain. And if everyone lived like the affluent, 80% of the people would have to die. But humans are not creatures of logic. We are social animals who cooperate based on fairy tales.

Ideally, you can achieve a higher status by being helpful to others or contributing to society. That motivates us to help and contribute. And we are thankful to those who bring food to the table. It is the businesspeople who pay for our groceries. You wouldn’t have anything to eat if they weren’t busy squeezing money out of something, even when we could do without that something, and even if it is slowly poisoning us. We would be starving in the capitalist economy if we didn’t make and trade all that useless stuff. And not everyone is fit to run a business. It is why we value entrepreneurs so much.

Tell me true, tell me why, was Jesus crucified?
Was it for this that Daddy died?
Was it you? Was it me?
Did I watch too much TV?
Is that a hint of accusation in your eyes?
If it wasn’t for the Nips
Being so good at building ships
The yards would still be open on the Clyde
And it can’t be much fun for them
Beneath the rising sun
With all their kids committing suicide
What have we done?

Pink Floyd, The Post War Dream

The Japanese have worked hard to get ahead, putting the British shipyards out of business, only to see their kids committing suicide. The Chinese are following suit. Why can’t we be happy? It is not that the Japanese didn’t have enough. When you have enough, you don’t need more. Jesus said that it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich person to enter the kingdom of God. The phrase ‘you’ll own nothing, and you’ll be happy’ appeals to our deepest fears of a dismal future in which we starve while being fed propaganda. We prefer a fatal excess of material goods to the bliss of the needy North Koreans. Somehow, we think that the choice is between capitalism and socialism. Can’t there be something better?

Economic growth in the European Union has lagged behind that of the United States in recent decades. And due to its stellar growth, China has overtaken Europe. Europeans work fewer hours and retire earlier than Americans. Europe doesn’t innovate as much because Europeans are more risk-averse than Americans. Europe has fewer billionaire venture capitalists willing to take risks with their excess capital on new ideas that are usually products or services no one needs, but generate money for investors.

Europe has more regulations and fragmented markets. It lacks tech corporations like Apple, Facebook, Google and Microsoft. Still, without the products of the Dutch corporation ASML, there would be no Apple, Facebook, Google and Microsoft. And also no NVIDIA. The most crucial tech industry is still in Europe. Europeans have fewer children, so the population is ageing and close to declining. European worker productivity lags as Europe has fewer money-generating bullshit activities. European and US manufacturing output have fared similarly since 2000. And if you correct for purchasing power, European countries do better. Life in the US is more expensive, which boosts GDP.

Some say Europe is becoming an open-air museum, a place to visit for those who want to see how life was in the past. Still, Western Europe has less poverty than the US, and Europeans live longer. Europe looks more like Paradise than the United States or China. Are Europeans happier? The World Happiness Report puts eight European nations in the top ten. Only happiness is hard to measure. Finland is number one on the list, but it also has high alcoholism and suicide rates. Like Americans, Europeans increasingly fear the future and vote for fascist parties and leaders.

Will we never be satisfied, no matter how rich we are? Or do the statistics not reflect real life? Or is it perception because we live by stories rather than facts? Or do people sense that things are heading in the wrong direction? Discussing statistics is tricky. Talking about open-air museums. The Old Order Amish are happy people. They don’t need much to live in Paradise. And they don’t have statistics. Only a Paradise can’t do without a strong protector, thus an 800-pound gorilla who scares the hell out of potential invaders. Europe and the Pennsylvania Dutch could count on the protection of the US Army. But who will keep God’s Paradise safe? Captain Obvious has the answer.

Modernisation

You can only say that things are heading in the wrong direction if you expect disaster or when you have a vision of how things should be. Otherwise, there is no right or wrong direction. The ecological apocalypse may kill billions, and technological development could end humanity, but are these terrible things? It depends on whether you think humanity is precious, which is merely an opinion. Modernisation has had its critics. They weren’t that stupid, except for believing we have a choice and can change the system. We might if we are all on the same page, but that requires a miracle.

Mahatma Gandhi believed industrialisation wouldn’t solve the problems plaguing the Indian poor. He urged Indian villagers to remain self-sufficient in food, make their clothes, and avoid the temptation of mass-produced consumption goods. When Gandhi lived, most Indians were hardly better off than their forebears had been before British colonisation. Today, poverty in India has declined dramatically. The Unabomber claimed in his manifesto that the Industrial Revolution had initiated a process that would eventually destroy humanity through technology and end freedom by forcing us to adapt to machinery.

We shouldn’t romanticise the past. Billions are still poor, but poverty has declined. The Industrial Revolution created an engine of permanent change, driven by competition, economies of scale, and innovation. We have become cogs in a system over which we have no control. Communities disappeared, giving way to societies. And the competition never ends. Humans emerged as winners in a contest between species known as the struggle for survival. They then turned into the destroyers of other life on Earth.

Humans innovate faster than other species. We have eliminated the competition, taken over the planet and killed many of the plants and animals that once lived there. The remaining wildlife lives in a few reservations. Artificial intelligence will soon outcompete us. The driver of competition is trade. Without trade, two countries can’t compete, not even two villages, for that matter. And that is our ultimate challenge. The prospect of continued competition is mass destruction. So it would be better to stifle all innovation with red tape than to let things continue as they do. It is a matter of life and death.

Why things are getting more evil

What we see as good benefits something, and what we see as evil harms something. So what you think is good or evil depends on the something you have in mind, what you believe is beneficial and harmful, whether you believe intent matters, and what you think the consequences of choices are. And so there is room for debate. Intent is an interesting issue. You can make the same choice, such as euthanasia, out of compassion, out of cruelty, or based on a principle you believe in. Consequences may also matter. Evil intent can have favourable outcomes, while good intent can bring disaster. That has been an argument in defence of capitalism. The capitalism-socialism debate originates in divergent views on law and morality within the Western tradition.

In the Anglo-Saxon world, with the Common Law, individuals are sovereign, and ethical philosophy is pragmatic. It means that moral rules are a social agreement, so good and evil depend on popular sentiment; freedom is the ability to do as you please, and outcomes matter more than intent. In continental Europe, with Civil Law, the lawmaker is sovereign, thus the king or the people in a democracy, and idealism dominates ethical philosophy, most notably in Germany. It means that good and evil are absolute, freedom means liberating yourself from your lower urges, thus becoming rational and morally upright, and intent matters more than outcomes. Adam Smith was a pragmatist from Great Britain, while Karl Marx was an idealist from Germany.

Adam Smith, the founder of modern capitalist thought, argued in his book ‘The Wealth of Nations’ that self-interest in a market economy promotes overall economic well-being, as ‘it is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.’ In other words, self-interest rather than benevolence fills our stomachs. Conversely, socialist systems, despite being invented with good intentions, led to poverty and famine, so they are evil. Traditional moral systems regarded self-interest as evil and benevolence as good. Capitalism thus comes with an inversion of that morality, and it ultimately became greed is good. It reflects pragmatic moralism rather than an idealistic or absolutist take on ethics.

Capitalism rewards individuals for their ability to generate money by transforming natural resources and energy into waste and pollution, by producing things we don’t need in a competition that will end in disaster. Whatever intentions the greedy may have, their efforts bring about an apocalyptic catastrophe that some major religions have long predicted. We can be pragmatic and judge the greedy not by their intent but by the outcomes. And we can be idealistic or absolutist, arguing that markets have no morals. Individual market participants may possess moral values, but markets never do. There are always people willing to do the trade. When there is demand, there will be supply. The trader’s ethic is no ethics at all. Money corrupts everything, including the government, and that is why things are getting more evil.

Karl Marx wrote in his famous book that capital is dead labour that, like a vampire, only lives by sucking living labour. In capitalism, the dead eat the living, which eventually leads to a zombie apocalypse as predicted by ancient Christian prophets. The specifics of the events do not precisely match those in the Book of Revelation, and somehow they never do, despite the frantic efforts of religious people to prove otherwise. But every sizeable inheritance or successful launch of a new corporation that gets us hooked on things we don’t need is the birth of a new zombie.

And the innovation never stops. Vampire capital, or private equity, is the latest brainchild of capital owners to suck more money out of us. The giants, such as Apollo Global Management, Blackstone, and the Carlyle Group, control $8 trillion in assets. Over 18,000 private funds operate in the US, mainly investing in medium-sized companies. The figure grew by more than 50% in the last five years. According to McKinsey consultants, global private equity assets reached $13 trillion in 2023.5

Here comes just one example. There are countless others. About 70% of nursing homes in the United States are for-profit. They have increasingly merged into larger chains, often owned by private equity firms. Two-thirds of the nursing homes’ cash flow comes from Medicaid. The company Manor Care had 25,000 beds and was the second-largest nursing home chain in the country by 2017. A private equity firm, The Carlyle Group, acquired it in 2007 through a leveraged buyout.

Carlyle sold the land on which the nursing homes stood to a company specialising in providing real estate to healthcare providers. Carlyle pocketed the proceeds from the land sale and used them to pay off the debt incurred in acquiring Manor Care. Manor Care then had to pay rent using its Medicaid revenues, while Carlyle took the operating profits. With this new rent burden, Manor Care’s margins contracted. Carlyle then insisted on cutting positions and wages.5

The quality of care deteriorated as the chain struggled financially and laid off staff. In the wake of the private equity purchase of Manor Care, nurse staffing fell, and resident deaths increased by 11%. Bills, mainly to Medicare, increased by 8%.6 Code violations soared. Lawsuits from relatives spiralled, and Manor Care went bankrupt in 2018. That was a lot of money for lawyers, also. There are plenty of examples. When a private equity firm acquires a doctor’s practice, it starts employing profit-boosting strategies, including surprise billing. Private equity firms remove doctors from insurers’ networks, allowing them to bill patients for far more than insurers would pay.

Then there is Big Pharma. Pharmaceutical corporations pay doctors for prescribing their drugs. Their marketing efforts contributed to the opioid crisis in the United States. An example is Purdue Pharma, which developed, manufactured, and aggressively marketed opioids for decades, causing addiction and overdose deaths. After the settlement, the Sackler family, who long owned the corporation, walked away with billions. Many Americans don’t trust their healthcare system, nor do they trust pharmaceutical corporations. These feelings, the COVID-19 vaccine scare and conspiracy theories led to an estimated 200,000 fatalities in the US because of not taking these vaccines.7

Big Pharma funds healthcare research, so there is reason to be sceptical, or even distrustful. On the other hand, many ‘independent research’ and ‘independent magazines’ are a business model for quacks and snake-oil salespeople, who sell alternative treatments and sensational stories. Quackery is even more lethal and driven by that same profit motive. And the death toll of not taking the vaccines likely vastly outstripped the number of people who died from them. It is a sign of something more troubling. Money has corrupted US healthcare, along with the rest of US society, to the point that not only is trust in healthcare collapsing, but trust in society itself is as well. And with good reason. Americans pay more for healthcare than anyone else, while they hardly live longer than Cubans, a destitute people suffering under a failed communist experiment.

We live by stories

Most of us wouldn’t be so depraved as to do what the private equity firms do. If you are rich already, how can you be so evil that you want to make money out of denying the elderly their care or defrauding unsuspecting patients? That is because markets have no morals, and the merchant’s ethics are no ethics at all. There is money in it, and it is legal, so it happens, because money is our highest value rather than caring for patients and the elderly. But it is profoundly evil. Jesus said that you can’t serve both God and money. The Dutch call this issue ‘the merchant and the vicar.’ You are either on the side of good or on the side of money. There is no compromise. So far, money always wins. In that sense, and some other ways as well, Marxism is Christianity without God. And that is no coincidence.

To change our course, we need a new foundation for our culture, values, and way of life, but that requires a new world religion. Traditional peoples saw nature as sacred. Likewise, we can see God’s creation as sacred. We are here to keep it rather than to destroy it. In 1854, the Native American Chief Seattle gave a speech when the US government wanted to buy their land. A redacted version of his oration became a rallying cry within the environmentalist movement. In that version, Seattle reportedly said,

How can you buy or sell the sky, the warmth of the land? The idea is strange to us. Every part of this earth is sacred to my people. We are part of the earth, and it is part of us. The white man does not understand our ways.

One portion of land is the same to him as the next, for he is a stranger who comes in the night and takes from the land whatever he needs. He leaves his father’s grave behind, and he does not care. He kidnaps the earth from his children, and he does not care.

We might understand if we knew what the white man dreams, what hopes he describes to his children on long winter nights, and what visions he burns into their minds so they will wish for tomorrow. But we are savages. The white man’s dreams remain hidden from us.

Chief Seattle and his people had lived simple lives in their own Eden. He saw that the white man was on a road to nowhere. He dreams, not much unlike the poor sobs who invented agriculture 10,000 years ago, that if he works hard, his life will be better. Today, nearly everyone else follows the white man’s path and many work even harder than the white man. Poverty is declining worldwide, but the Earth can’t sustain our lifestyles. And artificial intelligence may soon make us obsolete. Will we ride towards our destruction, or can we be content with having enough? And how do we get there? That is not merely an economic question. It begins with our values and the dreams we live by.

Featured image: Bicyclists. By FaceMePLS from The Hague, The Netherlands – Buitenleven / Country Life. Wikmedia Commons. CC BY 2.0.

1. Investor Insanity? The Degenerate Economy Index Up 130%. Boaz Sobrado (2025). Forbes.
2. Real gross domestic product per capita in chained 2017 dollars (A939RX0Q048SBEA). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
3. Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind. Yuval Noah Harari (2014). Harvil Secker.
4. American workers are stuck in an ‘infinite workday,’ according to Microsoft report: ‘People are feeling very burnt out’ Sophie Caldwell (2025). CNBC.com.
5. Private equity: vampire capital. Michael Roberts blog (2024).
6. Private equity: health care’s vampire. Steffie Woolhandler, David U. Himmelstein, Elizabeth Schrier, and Hope Schwartz (2024). Statnews.com.
7. Estimated preventable COVID-19-associated deaths due to non-vaccination in the United States. National Library of Medicine. Katherine M Jia, William P Hanage, Marc Lipsitch, Amelia G Johnson, Avnika B Amin, Akilah R Ali, Heather M Scobie, and David L Swerdlow.

Amazon Blue Front Economist

Supply and demand

There is a joke that goes like so. Teach a parrot to say supply and demand, and you have an economist. Economics is all about supply and demand. To understand the market economy, you should know the law of supply and demand. Not surprisingly, this is one of the most important laws in economics, even though this law is often wrong. This law states that the price is where supply and demand are equal. An example of the coffee market can clarify that.

If coffee is free, people might like to drink lots of coffee. But producers cannot make coffee for free. They go bankrupt if coffee is free because they have costs, for instance, employees and equipment. A price of € 3 per kilogramme may not cover all their expenses. Some producers can produce cheaper than others because they have more efficient production facilities. When the price is € 5, a few producers might make a profit and start making coffee.

That may not be enough to satisfy the demand that is out there. The low-cost producers have a limited production capacity. They may come up with 650 kilogrammes of coffee. Consumers might want to gobble up 1,700 kilogrammes if the price is only € 5 per kilogramme. In that case, there would be a shortage of 1,050 kilogrammes. Consumers who fear that they get nothing might offer more money, so the price of coffee rises.

When coffee becomes more expensive, some consumers might not be able to afford coffee. Others may buy less because they have other expenses like beer and milk. On the other hand, some producers can make a profit at this price and start producing. So when the price increases, supply goes up, and demand goes down.

At € 10 per kilogramme, every producer may make a profit, even those with high costs, and producers may come up with 2,000 kilogrammes. Consumers may only buy 600 kilogrammes because it is too expensive, resulting in a surplus of 1,400 kilogrammes. Producers may try to sell their surplus at lower prices before it gets spoiled to recover some of their costs. When prices are lower, consumers are willing to buy more. High-cost producers cannot make a profit and stop making coffee. So when the price decreases, demand goes up, and supply goes down.

The price may settle where supply equals demand. When the price is € 7, producers may make 1,200 kilogrammes, and consumers may gobble up 1,200 kilogrammes. So € 7 per kilogramme could be the price of coffee according to the law of supply and demand. The law often does not work as more issues play a role, but the law suffices for a basic understanding of markets. A graph can illuminate the discussion so far:

supplydemand2

The graph shows the quantities of coffee demanded and supplied at different prices. When the price increases, demand goes down, and supply goes up. The downward-sloping black dashed line represents demand. The upward-sloping black line represents supply. If the price is low, the supply is small, and demand is high, leading to a shortage. At € 5, there will be a shortage of 1,050 kilogrammes as demand is 1,700 kilograms while supply is only 650 kilogrammes.

If the price is high, there is little demand and plenty of supply, leading to a surplus. If the price is € 10, there will be a surplus of 1,400 kilograms as supply is 2,000 kilograms and demand is only 600 kilograms. The lines of demand and supply cross at 1,200 kilograms and a price of € 7. Supply and demand match 1,200 kilograms, and € 7 is the price according to the law of supply and demand.

In reality, things often differ a lot from this simple model. There may be different qualities of coffee at their own price. In some markets, there is a lot of competition, and corporations hardly make a profit. Other markets lack competition, and corporations make huge profits. And there hardly ever is an equilibrium as the factors that influence supply, demand, and price constantly change. Nevertheless, simple examples like this one help to explain how a market economy works.

Featured image: Ara Economicus. Beverly Lussier (2004). Wikimedia Commons. Public Domain.

The End of Usury

The miracle of capitalism

A few centuries ago, over 99% of the world’s population lived in abject poverty. In 1651, Thomas Hobbes depicted human life as poor, nasty, brutish, and short. It had always been that way. Yet, a few centuries later, a miracle had occurred. Nowadays, more people suffer from obesity than from hunger. The life expectancy in the poorest countries exceeds that of the Netherlands in 1750, the wealthiest nation in the world at the dawn of the Industrial Revolution. This miracle is the result of science, innovations and a massive build-up of capital. How could that happen? That is because interest rates have come down from 30% in the Middle Ages to near zero today. Only, what caused interest rates to go that low?

In the economic sphere, it is the outcome of an epic battle between ‘Time Preference’ and ‘Capitalist Spirit’ that raged for centuries. The capitalist spirit won. Ordinary people suffer from a condition known as time preference, which causes them to spend their money on frivolous items. They think, ‘Live today, because you can be dead tomorrow.’ Economists say they lack trust in the future. There are also capitalists, who are special people who suffer from an illness called the capitalist spirit. Rather than spending their money on frivolous items, they think, ‘Don’t live today, but invest, so you will have more money when you die.’ Economists say that they have trust in the future.

And so, capitalists save and invest while ordinary people work for them and buy the products and services their ventures produce. When time preference prevails, there are few savings and high interest rates. People are poor because there is a lack of money for investments. When the capitalist spirit prevails, there are ample savings, low interest rates, and wealthy individuals with excess capital to invest. This miracle wouldn’t have happened without low interest rates, as investment returns must be higher than the interest rate, and interest rates can’t be low without efficient financial markets and trust in political and economic institutions. So, how did that come about?

In the Middle Ages, Europeans gradually developed a capitalist spirit. The ethic of the merchant gradually spread, so that money and profit, rather than Christian values, came to drive Europeans. They found new trade routes and exploited their colonies. Initially, Spain and Portugal led the way, but their kings were short of cash and heavily taxed their people. Many merchants moved to the Dutch Republic, which was more business-friendly because the propertied classes ran it. The Dutch didn’t have a strong state with an army, so taxes were also lower. The Dutch invented the stock market, featuring publicly traded shares, a crucial financial innovation that helps manage risk. Since then, investors could invest in a corporation at any time and sell their investment at any time.

Later, Great Britain became the dominant power. The British business elite, who paid most of the taxes, didn’t like paying for incompetence and corruption. After they had gained control over the British state in the Glorious Revolution of 1689, they forced the state to improve its competence. The British invented fractional reserve banking with a central bank, thereby creating efficient financial markets. Their colonial empire also expanded, so that they came to control the largest market, which favoured economies of scale. Once the competent government and financial innovations were in place, the Industrial Revolution took off. Low interest rates made long-term investments in machines profitable.

Once interest rates had decreased, economic growth accelerated, enabling investment returns to cover interest payments, which allowed financial markets to expand and drive further growth. The capitalist miracle is that financial markets helped boost trade and production by creating money that doesn’t exist to start businesses that don’t yet exist to make products that the people those businesses will hire will buy with this newly created money. Financial markets are at the basis of the capitalist economy. When growth slows, interest-bearing debt may collapse the global economy, but so far, financial innovators have invented new schemes to lend more, helped by low interest rates. Low interest rates make an economy possible, not high ones. But trust makes low interest rates possible.

Usury: the hidden cancer

As long as there was growth, there was more for most people, even though the division of the fruits of capitalism has its shortcomings. Personal qualities explain some inequality. Some people work harder, some are better entrepreneurs, some are more frugal, some are more useful, and some are better at exploiting others for their personal gain. These people usually end up wealthier. Still, the primary driving force in the capitalist system has little to do with individual qualities. It is profit or interest. Interest comprises all returns on capital. Interest is the reason why the rich get richer at the expense of the rest of us.

Interest fuels a global competition driven by innovation and economies of scale. As a result, a few oligarchs have become exceptionally wealthy, often by cornering markets, such as in the tech sector. Wealth inequality will be the most urgent immediate challenge once there is less to go around. It is unacceptable that people are starving because of a fuel shortage while the elites fly around in their private jets. Today, the increased use of artificial intelligence drives up energy prices, pushing humans out of the energy market.

Interest rates emerge in a market. Credit in the banking system and the actions of central banks have a profound influence, making financial markets more efficient. Still, supply and demand in financial markets remain key factors. Silvio Gesell had already envisioned, in 1916, that efficient global financial markets would eventually drive interest rates to zero. He based his prediction on the observation that interest rates were the lowest in London, which had the most developed financial markets at the time.

Wealth inequality, caused by decades of neoliberal supply-side economic policies, also plays a role. Gutting labour rights and social benefits to lower taxes for the rich caused their wealth to trickle down via lower interest rates. The wealthy, awash in capital, have run out of sensible investment options because working-class people lack the funds to spend. And so, interest rates decreased, allowing the working class to borrow more, propping up the economy with asset bubbles, in yet another usurious scheme in which the rich exploit the rest of us. Adding mortgage debt has long helped keep several economies afloat, including the Netherlands’.

Most people pay more interest than they receive. We pay interest via rents, taxes, and the price of everything we buy. Interest works like a tax on poverty that the poor pay for the benefit of the wealthy. Lower interest rates could benefit most people by lowering prices. You don’t see that happening. In a usury-based financial system, lower interest rates allow us to borrow more, putting more money into circulation and raising prices. As we borrow more, we may end up paying even more interest. To improve their yields in a low-interest environment, capitalists invent new schemes, such as leveraged buyouts and vampire capitalism. Lower interest rates also enabled more predatory lending because they made loan-sharking profitable at higher default rates.

Lower interest rates have worsened the excesses in the financial system. That is because we live under a usurious financial system. Had the maximum interest rate been zero, loan-sharking and leveraged buyouts wouldn’t be possible. But that would require us to look after people in financial trouble and limit their freedom, rather than giving them the liberty to borrow from payday lenders and credit card corporations. The underlying problem is the merchant’s ethics, which has become the foundation of our moral system, which is no ethics at all. A world without merchants is a world without many comforts we take for granted, but trade also makes us dependent on a system of governments and markets. Interest plays a crucial role. Investments must at least return the prevailing interest rate. Things aren’t straightforward, so ‘interest is evil’ is not a helpful approach to the matter. But what precisely is usury?

What is usury?

When you ask someone what usury is, the answer might be charging an excessively high interest rate. Traditionally, usury referred to paying for the use of money. In other words, usury is charging interest on loans. In this traditional definition, the currency has a constant value, so the borrower must repay the same value. If a ruler debases the currency and halves its gold content, a lender has a legitimate claim on the same amount of gold, hence twice the amount of currency. The reasons why usury is damaging are:

  • Usury turns money into a tool of power, enabling the rich to exploit the poor.
  • Usury disrupts the circular flow of money, causing economic hardship.
  • Fixed interest payments cause financial instability as incomes fluctuate.

Making a profit from a business venture is not usury. However, all capital income is interest, and interest contributes to wealth and income inequality, unless the interest rate is at or below the growth rate. Capitalism has raised living standards, so the prevailing view is that its benefits outweigh its drawbacks. Today, capitalist economies excel in generating money for capitalists by turning energy and resources into waste and pollution to market non-essential products and services in the bullshit economy. Therefore, the drawbacks now surpass the benefits, and by a wide margin.

The economist Piketty found that interest rates on capital were higher than the economic growth rate most of the time.1 That is unsustainable. It requires capital destruction that creates new room for growth or lower interest rates. In the past, World War I, the Great Depression, and World War II annihilated capital and created new room for growth. And so did the end of communism at the end of the 20th century. Eastern Europe, China and India became new centres of growth. The wave of capital seeking a return has finally reached Africa, the last frontier. From now on, growth must come from ‘wealth-creating’ non-essential activities in the bullshit economy, such as data centres that run artificial intelligence.

Value standard

The idea behind banning usury is that it is unfair for borrowers to return more than they borrowed. Traditionally, the poor borrowed from the rich, so charging interest would make them even poorer. If you borrow a loaf of bread, you return it. That is simple. Money, however, is an abstract measure of value, so what is usury and what is not requires a value standard. Islam forbids charging interest on money and debts, but also prohibits the debasement of currencies. According to Islamic law, money is gold or silver. Lenders should receive the same amount of gold or silver as repayment for the loan. There is, however, no reward for the risk of lending, which impedes capital formation. It is one of the reasons why the Industrial Revolution didn’t take off in the Islamic world.

A Natural Money currency serves as the value standard, so usury refers to charging an interest rate above zero on loans. To serve as a standard, the currency must have a stable value. The value of the Egyptian grain money came from its backing by grain stored in granaries. During the gold standard, gold was the value standard, as you could exchange national currencies for a fixed amount of gold. The backing of today’s fiat currencies is the economy. The Quantity Theory of Money states that Money Stock (M) * Velocity (V) = Price (P) * Quantity (Q), so Money Stock (M) depends on Velocity (V), Price (P) and Quantity (Q), and the value of a single unit such as the euro, is M / units in circulation.

A grain or gold backing can give the currency a stable value because there is a limited amount of grain and gold. Such a limit doesn’t exist for fiat currencies. Still, Natural Money currency can serve as a stable value standard because its issuance depends on lenders’ willingness to accept negative interest rates. Lenders thus only lend when they expect the currency’s future value to remain sufficiently stable. When they don’t lend, the amount of money in circulation shrinks due to negative interest rates and debt repayments, allowing the currency’s value to increase and prices to decrease. Trust in the currency thus stems from persistent deflationary pressures, as negative interest rates consume the money supply, and the maximum interest rate constrains credit creation.

Efficiency argument

Today’s global economy is overcapitalised due to massive over-investment in the bullshit economy, so near-term future growth rates will probably be negative, either as the result of an involuntary collapse or a managed decline, and the sustainable interest rate will also be negative. Once the world economy is on a sustainable footing again, there may be sustainable growth, allowing growth rates to become positive once more in the more distant future. A stable economy operating near the maximum growth rate, which can be negative, can achieve its full potential and full employment. That is what the ‘miracle of Wörgl’ suggests.

When average investment returns are near their sustainable maximum, real interest rates are also near their sustainable maximum. The usury-based economy is unstable due to credit expansions and contractions, so it often does not operate at its sustainable maximum, reducing its efficiency. Natural Money helps achieve a stable economy and minimise financial system risk, thereby realising the sustainable maximum. It follows that real interest rates with Natural Money are higher, even when economic growth rates are positive. The maximum nominal interest rate is zero, so higher real rates show up as currency appreciation, allowing an interest rate of zero to yield a positive absolute return.

A simple calculation illustrates this view. Economists assume there is a link between the amount of money and money substitutes (M) in circulation and prices in the equation Money Stock (M) * Velocity (V) = Price (P) * Quantity (Q). If ΔP, ΔM and ΔQ are sufficiently small, and velocity is constant, so that ΔV = 0, then it is possible to approximate this equation with %ΔP = %ΔM – %ΔQ, where %ΔP is the percentage change in price level, %ΔM is the percentage change in money stock, %ΔV is the percentage change in money velocity, and %ΔQ is the percentage change in the quantity of production.

The velocity of money (V) for Natural Money might be higher than for interest-bearing currency, and that could go together with a smaller money stock (M). Still, the velocity is likely to remain constant, as the economic picture is expected to remain stable. Now, it is possible to calculate the real interest rate (r) as the nominal interest rate (i) minus the inflation rate (%ΔP), so that r = i – (%ΔM + %ΔQ).

Suppose the long-term average economic growth rate for interest-bearing money is 2%. For Natural Money, it might be 3% because the economy is more often performing at its maximum potential. Assume that the long-term average money supply increase for interest-bearing money is 6% per year. For Natural Money, it is 0%. The long-term price inflation rate could then be 4% for interest-bearing money. With Natural Money, there could be a price deflation rate of 3% as the economy grows at a rate of 3% with a stable money supply. We can then produce the following calculation:

 situation interest on money  Natural Money 
 nominal interest rate (i)+3%-2%
 change in money supply (ΔM) +6%0%
 economic growth (ΔQ)+2%+3%
 real interest rate (r = i – ΔM + ΔQ)-1%+1%

Economic growth can be higher with Natural Money, allowing real interest rates to be higher. Furthermore, because Natural Money has several stabilisers that reduce financial system risk, the level of risk is likely lower. As a result, the risk-reward ratios associated with Natural Money are better than those in the current usury-based financial system. In other words, the same real interest rate in a usury-free financial system is a better deal because it entails fewer risks. Hence, a usury-free financial system based on Natural Money is more efficient, so there will be a capital flight from the usury-based economy to the usury-free economy after implementing Natural Money on a large enough scale. The efficiency argument demonstrates that usurious finance is parasitic.

The real interest rate may improve more than the economic growth rate due to lower financial-sector profits from phasing out exploitative parasitic activities, such as interest-bearing consumer credit. The rationale is that, without credit card payments, consumers have more disposable income. Furthermore, economic and financial stability can reduce investment risks, thereby requiring less financial sector intermediation. The financial instability and the need for government and central bank interventions in the usury-based financial system create opportunities for politically connected and other savvy and informed individuals, often referred to as ‘parasites’, to enrich themselves at the expense of the general public. The higher efficiency of Natural Money could end that.

The efficiency argument still applies when we switch to a values-driven, people-friendly economy that operates in harmony with nature. The inefficiency of such an economy stems from its inferior ability to generate money for investors by transforming energy and natural resources into waste and pollution in the bullshit economy. That depresses interest rates. That is not an inefficiency in the financial sector. With Natural Money, a values-driven, people-friendly economy can remain operational thanks to the financial system’s efficiency. Terminating the bullshit economy in a usury-based financial system will also depress interest rates. That can bring about an economic collapse, because usury makes capital addicted to growth.

Trust

Someone once asked me on an Internet message board, ‘Why would I lend money interest-free?’ The borrower may not repay. So, why take that risk? We lend interest-free to people we trust, and we may lend to family and friends, even when they are untrustworthy individuals living off our money. After all, they are family and friends. In a market, it won’t happen unless we trust the currency and the borrowers. Hence, ending usury is only possible in a high-trust environment. And investors must be in the market for other reasons than maximising their profits. Those who lend money to organic farms and invest in renewable energy have a different view of investing than vampire capitalists, who scam the government and rob grandparents of their retirement savings.

Credit means trust. Trust in the future is the foundation of the capitalist economy. Investors imagine that the future will be better so that their investments will be profitable or at least not loss-making. Credit, or financial capital, reflects this trust. Most of our money is credit, so its value depends on an imagined future. Some people argue that credit, banking, and central banking are a fraud because they are a fantasy. They may prefer something tangible, such as gold. Indeed, the capitalist economy, as well as civilisation in general, demonstrates the power of human imagination, and our faith in what we believe.

To have trust in the future, investors must believe that their investments are safe. The rule of law, political stability, the absence of graft, and sensible economic policies are fundamental factors for the economy to function effectively. As investments, such as factory investments, are long-term, the risk that a government will annul earlier commitments is a critical factor in investment decisions. Government actions, such as asset confiscation or taxation, can deter investors. Differences in tax regimes are equally damaging, as tax havens parasitise on productive economies that collect taxes to invest in their infrastructure and education.

Interest rates are the lowest in stable countries with low inflation, as trust translates into a risk premium on investments. The greater the perceived risk, the more the future becomes discounted, the higher the interest rates are, and the lower the standard of living usually is. Hence, Switzerland and Sweden have low interest rates, while Argentina and Mozambique have high interest rates. Interest rates in Europe are lower than in the United States. Apart from lower growth expectations, the Stability and Growth Pact, which limits government deficits, plays a role. And the government deficit as a percentage of tax income is a better indicator of the health of government finances than the deficit as a percentage of GDP. These are more sustainable in Europe. And so, trust also plays a role here.

Interest rates in Switzerland are currently at their lowest. In 2025, the key interest rate stands at zero. Interest rates in Switzerland are that low because investors trust the Swiss currency. From 1990 until 2024, the government’s budget deficit averaged at 0.45% of GDP. At the end of 2024, government debt was 20% of GDP. A general rule is that the lower the trust in the currency, the higher the interest rate. Venezuela has the highest interest rate at 60%, but with an inflation rate of 180%, investors are better off with a yield of zero in Swiss francs. In a market, low interest rates signal trust. Hence, trust is a crucial prerequisite for ending usury.

In 2025, interest rates in Turkey exceeded 40% to curb inflation after a failed monetary experiment. The assumption that interest charges cause inflation led Turkey’s leader to force the central bank to lower its interest rates. Inflation soared to 85% in 2022. The Turkish leader was defrauding creditors, thereby transgressing Islamic law. The relationship between interest and inflation exists, but it operates via credit. Credit expansion causes inflation, not interest itself. In a usury-based financial system with fiat currencies, raising interest rates curbs inflation by dampening demand for credit. That obscures the truth that interest is a cause of inflation, but a better way to limit credit expansion is to set a maximum interest rate on loans.

With Natural Money, the central bank doesn’t set the interest rate or manage the money supply. The interest rate and the money supply emerge in the market for lending and borrowing. The holding fee on the currency provides a stimulus by making lending at negative interest rates attractive, so no money remains on the sidelines. At the same time, the maximum interest rate of zero provides austerity, curtailing credit during a boom or when inflation is high. That will cool down the economy and dampen inflation. There could be deflation, and deflation could be permanent. The market for lending and borrowing is free in the sense that the central bank doesn’t manage interest rates and the money supply. However, the maximum interest rate of zero operates as a price control.

Interest rates emerge in the market for lending and borrowing. Negative interest rates require trust in the currency, the government and its policies, the financial system, and, ultimately, in the borrowers. It requires trust in the political economy and the future. In other words, all the world’s governments must be as reliable and capable as Denmark’s, and the global economy must be on a sustainable footing. At the same time, market participants shouldn’t engage in scams. So far, business and ethics haven’t agreed very well. The ethic of the merchant is no ethic at all. The change requires a moral imperative. We shouldn’t harm other people or nature. Instead, we should see the consequences of our actions and change our ways. Only a new religion can make that happen.

The price of usury

Interest promotes wealth and income equality. Most of us pay more in interest than we receive, either directly through loans and rents, or indirectly through the products we purchase. German research from the 1980s showed that the bottom 80% poorest people pay interest to the top 10% of the wealthiest people. You can view interest as a tax on the poor paid to the wealthy. The wealthiest individuals reinvest most of their interest income. That is what made them rich in the first place.

Interest promotes short-term thinking. The pursuit of profit drives the transformation of energy and resources into waste and pollution in the bullshit economy. With positive interest rates, money in the future is worth less than money now. It affects investment choices. Without interest charges, long-term investments would become more attractive. When interest rates are high, cutting down a forest today, selling the wood, and investing the proceeds may give higher financial returns than sustainable forest management.

Incomes fluctuate against fixed interest charges. It can bring borrowers into trouble. Financial instability can lead to economic instability. Usury causes financial crises, recessions and depressions. Governments and central banks manage the problem, but their actions create a false sense of security, allowing debts to continue growing, which will ultimately lead to a financial apocalypse. The underlying cause is usury. However, the road to the end of usury also goes through financial innovation and modern finance.

Fractional reserve banking

Innovations in financial markets have made them more efficient, enabling lower interest rates and increased lending, thereby spurring the Industrial Revolution. A crucial invention was fractional reserve banking. It turned bank deposits into money. There is always a demand for money. It is the most liquid asset. Economists call it the liquidity preference. Money commands power. You can use money to buy anything at any time. We may want to keep cash at hand for expected purchases, unexpected expenses, and investment opportunities.2 And so, we often aren’t willing to lend our money.

Fractional reserve banking enables banks to lend out money that depositors can withdraw. If you lend money to a fractional reserve bank, you can use it at any time, as if it were cash. Banks kept a fraction of deposits in cash reserves to meet withdrawals, knowing that only a small share of depositors would withdraw their money. That freed up funds for investments and helped to lower interest rates. A fractional-reserve bank creates money because a new loan automatically creates a new, equal-sized deposit. And that deposit is like any other deposit. You can use it to make a payment or withdraw cash. Fractional reserve banking eroded the commanding power of money, resulting in lower interest rates.

Fractional-reserve banks can fail when a large number of depositors withdraw their funds at once. The integrity of fractional-reserve money depended on the ability to exchange deposits for cash. That is where central banks come in. They can help banks in times of trouble by printing additional cash and lending it to them at interest. That safety net reduced the risk associated with bank deposits, allowing interest rates to drop even lower, which, in turn, promoted more lending and economic development.

If it sounds too good to be true, then it usually is. Lower interest rates fuelled the economic boom since the Industrial Revolution, which will eventually lead to a technological-ecological apocalypse. Critics of fractional reserve banking and central banking further argue that lower interest rates encourage poor investment decisions and that the safety net provided by central banks creates a moral hazard. If interest rates were to rise, these investments would become unprofitable, leading to bankruptcies and unemployment. And if central banks rescue banks in times of trouble, it will promote irresponsible lending.

There is overcrediting, and lower interest rates promote irresponsible lending by increasing profit margins for usurious lending. The way to end usurious lending is to set a maximum interest rate. More recently, critics have argued that central banks, through extraordinary measures such as quantitative easing, have suppressed interest rates. However, central banks believed that interest rates were too high. They couldn’t lower them due to a price control called the zero lower bound, which distorts the market. By printing money, central banks aimed to generate inflation, thereby allowing them to raise interest rates later.

Reserve requirements

Banks hold reserves, which are money issued by a central bank. Reserves include banknotes and coins, as well as balances that banks hold at the central bank. The primary reason for holding reserves was to meet cash withdrawals from depositors or to make payments to other banks in case depositors transfer money to another bank, and the other bank desires payment in kind rather than an IOU. A reserve requirement is a liquidity requirement. A bank must have enough cash on hand to meet its short-term obligations. Two developments have profoundly affected the need for reserves:

  • Contrary to the past, depositors hardly ever withdraw their funds in cash, so the money stays within the banking system.
  • Government debt has become an alternative source of liquidity. Government debt issued in the government’s currency is as safe as cash.

A government can guarantee repayments of debts issued in its own currency by printing more currency, with a so-called independent central bank as a cover, which has become a core foundation of confidence in the current usury-based financial system. The central bank will not let the usury-based financial system fail, so it will print money to buy government debt, which reduces the supply of debt and increases the supply of currency by which to buy government debt, thereby lowering interest rates and allowing the government to borrow more, making new money available to pay interest.

These profound changes have made traditional reserve requirements largely redundant. Banks hardly need any cash in their vaults. If they pay another bank in kind, government debt is as good as central bank currency. Or a bank could borrow at the central bank or another bank and pledge government debt as collateral. The experts concluded that reserve requirements have become superfluous. Government debt has become the actual reserve. And so, banking regulations today focus on solvency, or the ability to meet long-term obligations. Still, it would be a most serious oversight to ignore liquidity.

Globalisation, liberalisation, and derivatives

Advances in information technology and financial innovations have driven the globalisation of financial markets over the past few decades. In the 1980s and 1990s, governments liberalised financial markets and removed capital controls. Capital controls can lead to higher interest rates and higher costs of capital.3 Globalisation and liberalisation expanded the possibilities for borrowing and lending worldwide.4 The increased competition reduced the price of financial intermediation.

Globalisation and liberalisation made financial markets more liquid. It became cheaper and easier to exchange financial instruments, such as bonds and stocks, as well as goods and services, for cash. This development is more commonly known as financialisation. Like fractional reserve banking, financialisation eroded the position of money as the most liquid asset, thereby diminishing the commanding position of money owners to demand interest.

Globalisation and liberalisation also caused trouble. Money and capital could move more freely, making it easier for changing expectations to lead to financial instability. Central bank interventions neutralised a series of financial crises in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. Lower interest rates prompted investors to seek higher yields and take on more risk. However, trust and, therefore, liquidity can suddenly evaporate. Some countries used capital controls to counter financial instability while central banks provided liquidity.

Innovations in risk management and derivatives enabled the financial sector to further increase lending. These innovations spread risk, allowing the total amount of risk in the system to grow. Due to a lack of regulatory oversight, derivatives also enabled scammers to sell fraudulent mortgages, contributing to the 2008 financial crisis. Still, banks that professionally used derivatives to hedge their risks weathered the crisis better and had fewer loan write-offs.5

The notional value of outstanding derivatives can be mind-boggling. Their actual value is much lower. You can best compare them with insurance policies. The notional value of your fire insurance policy is typically based on the value of your home. The actual value is the premium you pay. That is, until your house burns down, and the actual value becomes the notional value. Insurers can handle that until many homes catch fire simultaneously.

The actual value of an interest rate derivative on a 3% ten-year bond with a notional value of €1,000,000 might change by €81,109 if the interest rate increases to 4%. As long as parties use derivatives to hedge risks, and counterparties, the ‘insurers’, can absorb the losses, the system will function. An equivalent to all houses catching fire simultaneously could be a sudden increase in interest rates. When the system is more stable, the need for these instruments decreases.

Wealth effect and bubbles

Lower interest rates increase the value of assets via discounting. In theory, the price of an asset is the net present value of its future revenues. Even though that is often not the case in reality, the theory explains why the prices of assets like bonds, real estate, and stocks rise when interest rates decrease. In this sense, lower interest rates can promote wealth inequality, but only when we consider the net present value of assets. If future revenue streams don’t change, wealth inequality is merely a temporary side effect.

There was, however, another dynamic operating underneath. Lower interest rates allow consumers to borrow more by taking out higher mortgages, thereby financing their unsustainable lifestyles. Critics called it a wealth effect promoted by an asset bubble. Lending propped up consumer spending when the incomes of many working-class people were lagging, and the wealth of the rich ‘trickled down’ via lower interest rates as they were running out of sensible investment options, giving them yet another avenue by which to squeeze the working class. In a system of usury, lower interest rates are of no help.

Financial sanity

Interest compounds to infinity. Three grammes of gold at 4% interest turn into an amount of gold weighing twelve million times as much as the Earth after 2020 years. Most of us aren’t long-term planners. We are busy fixing holes rather than solving underlying problems until things fall apart. Economists do this as well. John Maynard Keynes invented government borrowing as a fix for usury-induced debt problems. He once justified his short-term thinking with the world-famous quote, ‘In the long run, we are all dead.’ And this man was the founding father of modern economic policies.

More debt has now become the standard solution for debt problems. Today, most money comes into existence as a loan on which the borrower must pay interest. Every loan creates a deposit. The depositor automatically becomes the lender. If the interest rate is 5%, and €100 is circulating, then €105 must come back. So, where does the extra € 5 come from? Here are, once again, the options:

  • Depositors (on aggregate) spend some of their balance so borrowers (on aggregate) can pay the interest from existing money.
  • Some borrowers default and do not return (part of) the balance.
  • Borrowers (on aggregate) borrow the extra €5.
  • The government borrows the extra €5.
  • The central bank creates €5 out of thin air to cope with the shortfall.

Interest payments do not necessarily cause a shortage of money. Still, in reality, they do, mainly because depositors find it, like Scrooge McDuck, difficult, emotionally or otherwise, to part with their money. New debts fill most of the holes caused by the Scrooge McDuckism of depositors. That is why debt levels nearly always increase. Still, the money doesn’t always arrive at the right places, which causes financial crises. A few defaults are acceptable, but too many can cascade into a financial crisis, triggering an economic downturn or even a depression.

The cost of letting the financial system fail is so great that this is not an option. The 2008 financial crisis could have meant the end of civilisation as we know it, had central banks not saved us from a financial apocalypse caused by usury. When no one else is borrowing, the government and the central bank must step in, either by borrowing or printing money outright, to introduce new money into circulation to repay existing debts with interest. In this way, debts continue to grow, and we have become the hostages of the usurers.

The end of the road

The road to the end of usury ran through financial innovations. They lowered interest rates. Today, the world is awash in debt, and interest payments strangle the global economy, so that future interest rates may become negative. That could either be the end of usury or, if usury remains, the end of the economy. The world economy may collapse, or we can have a graceful decline, promoted by the efficiency of a usury-free financial system. The efficiency of Natural Money can help us build a high-trust world economy founded on moral values.

In a simplified world, we rely more on family and community, and less on markets and states, so the economy will also become simpler. Natural Money eliminates risk from the financial system, so that, after its implementation, several modern financial instruments may become obsolete, joining fossil fuels and marketing strategies. Still, economies of scale apply to several essential products and services, including finance. Negative interest rates require risk management that only scale can provide.

Latest revision: 3 December 2025

Featured image: Loan shark picture circulating on the internet, origin unknown.

1. Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Thomas Piketty (2013). Belknap Press.
2. Keynes, John Maynard (1936). General Theory of Employment, Money and Interest. Palgrave Macmillan.
3. Edwards, Sebastian (1999). How Effective are Capital Controls? Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California.
4. Issing, Otmar (2000). The globalisation of financial markets. European Central Bank.
5. Norden, Lars, Silva Buston, Consuelo, Wolf Wagner (2014). Financial innovation and bank behaviour: Evidence from credit markets. Tilburg University.

2017 Jeep Grand Cherokee in Makarska, Croatia. Elishur19.

The law of diminishing marginal utility

Imagine you are fond of pizza and very hungry. If I offer you a pizza, you will be very grateful. If, after you have finished, I present you a second, you will not decline, but you will be a bit less grateful. If I offer you a third, you might still eat it, perhaps not to offend me. The fourth pizza you would decline. You might give a lame excuse like nausea to explain your peculiar behaviour. Before the fifth pizza is offered, you may already have sneaked out of my home.

Welcome to the law of diminishing marginal utility. It is a law in economics. It states that the more you have of something, the less use an extra unit has.

It is possible to express the law in terms of money. Suppose you are at a pizza restaurant, hungry, and willing to pay € 12 for a pizza. After eating it, you are not hungry and unwilling to pay € 12 for a second pizza. But if the restaurant owner offers you a discount of € 6, you might accept the offer. A third pizza you may only eat if it is on the house. A fourth pizza you will not eat unless the restaurant owner offers you € 6 to eat it. Eating a fifth pizza might cost the restaurant owner € 12.

number of pizzas eatenvalue of the next pizza in €
0€ 12
1€ 6
2€ 0
3– € 6
4– € 12

What might strike you is that the fourth and fifth pizzas have negative value to you. You are not willing to eat them unless the restaurant owner pays you for it.

Most people have other desires than pizza alone. If you also desire soda, there is a limit to that, too, and at some point, drinking more soda also has a negative value to you. Perhaps you desire a hundred other things, for instance, a refrigerator, and you may even have room for a second, but more refrigerators have no use to you, nor do they fit in your house. And so, the more you have, the less something extra is worth to you, and you might start to think about the future.

Perhaps you have plenty of pizza and soda now, but what about tomorrow and next year, so you might start saving. As we get wealthier, getting more stuff becomes less important to most of us, while certainty about the future becomes more important. At some point, we do not want more stuff, and the law of diminishing marginal utility becomes an obstacle to economic growth.

If you are happy with what you have and care about the future, you may save too much for the economy to grow and capitalists won’t make enough money because they must at least make the interest rate. The law of diminishing marginal utility is, therefore, a grave threat to capitalism. And so is interest. This is where the advertising industry comes in. The trick of advertising is to make us unhappy with what we have and to make us desire more. Buying this or that will make us happier, advertisements promise us.

Fashionable items with a limited lifespan are part of the solution too. It is not always possible to make us desire more stuff, but it is still possible to make us desire new stuff. The dress you bought last year is out of fashion now. In order not to look stupid you have to buy a new one. And then there is technological development. Next year there will be a newer model, and by the way, the software on the old model won’t be supported any more. And of course, luxury items do their bit. Why go for a Volkswagen Polo if you can afford a car with a low marginal sports utility value like the Jeep Grand Cherokee?

Yes, the Jeep Grand Cherokee is an ugly monster, but it is bigger than the Volkswagen Polo and if you can afford to drive it, why not? There is a reason why not.

We, humans, use far more resources than our planet can offer. That’s why capitalism is a grave threat to humanity. Capitalism nowadays is like making us eat the fifth pizza and pay extra for it even though that creates a health hazard while many people are hungry. And there may be no food tomorrow because we have eaten too much today. The Jeep Grand Cherokee is like the fifth pizza. We work hard to buy stuff we do not need. This is how humanity is committing suicide. This can’t go on. There is one obstacle. Businesses must make at least the interest rate, and interest rates below zero are still unthinkable.

In other words, we must learn to care about the future and interest rates may need to go below zero. We must learn to be happy with what we have and settle for less when possible. This may be a grave threat to capitalism for what will happen if we stop spending on excesses? Economists fear that the economy will collapse and that we will be without jobs when business profits decline and interest on debts can’t be paid. That doesn’t have to happen when interest rates are negative. In that case, debts don’t have to be repaid and businesses with little or no profits can survive.

That may seem strange but it is already happening. The law of diminishing marginal utility is kicking in, and it is kicking in big time.

This law affects capital too. If there is only one pizza factory that can supply every pizza addict with one pizza per day, it would almost certainly make a profit. A second factory might make a profit but it might not. And what is more, if the second factory comes into operation, the supply of pizza increases, and according to the law of supply and demand, the price of pizza would drop. That would also cut into the profits of the first factory.

A third factory is even more likely to be loss-making and it could make the other factories loss-making too. At some point, there is little use for capital. That causes the demand for capital to drop and interest rates to go negative. Traditional economics would consider this unhealthy or temporary.

That doesn’t need to be and it can be desirable. Three pizza factories fiercely competing and without profits might be better for consumers than one that is profitable if we assume that pizza is a necessity. Everyone must eat something. There could be an ample supply of investment capital at negative interest rates so profits may not be needed for pizza factories to stay in business.

A problem is that excess investment capital can go to businesses that suicide humanity by using scarce resources to produce the stuff we do not need. Negative interest rates can help to make the economy sustainable but only if the excesses do not happen. This would require governments to ban or tax excesses or to regulate their production so that these products don’t have a harmful impact. That would make them a lot more expensive.

But the fun of driving a Jeep Grand Cherokee, apart from giving environmentalists the middle finger, comes from the fact that you can afford to drive it, so the fun may be even greater when it is three times as expensive.

When people start saving more and businesses hardly make profits then where does the money go? It can be used to make the economy sustainable. It can go to people in need who still have use for money. The money can help to reduce poverty and it can be used to address pressing needs in society. And we could have far more leisure time. What’s the point of working so hard for things we do not need? We may only have to work for twenty hours per week and still have a good life. It seems possible that humanity will survive capitalism and that capitalism will be transformed into an economic model that can endure for the foreseeable future.

Featured image: 2017 Jeep Grand Cherokee in Makarska, Croatia. Elishur19. CC BY 4.0. Wikimedia Commons.

Beautiful countryside in southern California

Capital for the future

Making the economy sustainable may require an unprecedented amount of capital in the form of knowledge and outfits like solar panels, sustainable farms and energy-efficient transportation systems. It is hard to imagine that it can be done. And imagining it is still a lot easier than really doing it. It is going to require some economic magic to divert investment capital from destructive activities to the future of humanity. We may need more useful capital and less consumption.

Perhaps the invisible hand can be of some help. It is easier to finance a great endeavour from investments than from taxation because nobody wants to pay taxes but everybody is happy to invest. It is the secret of the success of the European empires that conquered the world after the Middle Ages. England, France, Spain and the Netherlands were much poorer and smaller than China, India or the Ottoman Empire, but they didn’t finance their conquests with taxation, but with the use of investment capital.1

Europe won out because European conquerors took loans from banks and investors to buy ships, cannons, and to pay soldiers. Profits from the new trade routes and colonies enabled them to repay the loans and build trust so they could receive more credit next time.1 The same logic may need to be applied to making the economy sustainable. The challenge is so enormous that it may never be possible to finance it by taxes. Nowadays interest rates are so low because there is plenty of investment capital.

It’s the economy stupid!

It is often argued that the economy is unsustainable because of short-term thinking. The economy must grow in order to have positive returns on investments. And it is believed that returns on investments need to be positive otherwise the economy would collapse. The economic time horizons of individuals are reflected in their time preferences. The time horizon of the economy as a whole is reflected in the interest rate.

The lower the interest rate, the longer the time horizon of the economy could be. The following example from the Strohalm Foundation can illustrate this:

Suppose that a cheap house will last 33 years and costs € 200,000 to build. The yearly cost of the house will be € 6,060 (€ 200,000 divided by 33). A more expensive house costs € 400,000 but will last a hundred years. It will cost only € 4,000 per year. For € 2,060 per year less, you can build a house that lasts three times as long.

After applying for a mortgage the math changes. If the interest rate is 10%, the expensive house will not only cost € 4,000 per year in write-offs, but during the first year there will be an additional interest charge of € 40,000 (10% of € 400,000).

The long-lasting house now costs € 44,000 in the first year. The cheaper house now appears less expensive again. There is a yearly write off of € 6,060 but during the first year there is only € 20,000 in interest charges. Total costs for the first year are only € 26,060. Interest charges make the less durable house cheaper.2

Without interest there is a tendency to select long-term solutions. Interest charges make long-term solutions less economical. Interest promotes a short-term bias in the economy. It may explain why natural resources like rainforests are squandered for short term profits. If interest rates are high, it may be more profitable to cut down a rainforest and to put the proceeds at interest rather than to manage the forest in a sustainable way.

Only, things are not as simple as the example suggests. For example, the building materials of the cheap house might be recycled to build a new house. And technology changes. For example, if cars had been built to last 100 years, most old cars would still be around. This could be a problem as old cars are more polluting and use more fuel. Nevertheless, the example shows that long-term investments can be more attractive when interest rates are lower.

This also applies to investments in renewable energy. For instance, a solar panel that costs € 100, lasts 15 years, and generates € 150 worth in electricity in the course of these 15 years, is feasible at an interest rate of 5% but not at an interest rate of 10%. Many investments in making the economy sustainable may have low returns and are only feasible when interest rates are low. Low and negative interest rates can also deal with low economic growth. That may be needed for living within the limits of the planet.

Living within the limits of the planet

When interest rates are negative, the time horizon of the economy could go to eternity so that it makes sense to invest in making the economy sustainable. A few examples from history can illustrate this. In the Middle Ages some areas in Europe had currencies with a holding fee like Natural Money. As there hardly was economic growth, interest rates were negative. It was the era of Europe’s great cathedrals. These cathedrals were built for eternity. As better investment opportunities were absent, wealthy towns people spent their excess money on cathedrals.3 For similar reasons, the people of Wörgl planted trees as the proceeds of the wood were expected to occur in the distant future.3

A bit of calculus shows why. At an interest rate of 5%, putting € 1 in a bank account turns into € 1,05 after a year, so you would rather have € 1 now than in one year’s time, even when you need the money in one year’s time. That’s because you can put the money on a bank account at interest. At an interest rate of 5%, € 100 in one year’s time is worth € 95.25 now. The distant future has even less value. The same € 100 in one hundred year’s time is worth only € 0.59. And € 100 after 1000 years has no value at all in the present.

At an interest rate of -5%, you would prefer to have the money when you need it, otherwise you would end up with less. At an interest rate of -5%, € 100 in one year’s time would be worth € 105. The same € 100 in one hundred year’s time would be worth € 13,501 now. And € 100 after 1000 years would be worth more than everything there is in the present. Income in the distant future is also very uncertain, so it is unlikely that investors will shift their time horizon to 1,000 years, but this logic may help us to come into terms with the limits our planet poses on human activities.

Living within the limits of the planet may require unprecedented investments in the future. These investments may require low or even negative interest rates as their returns may be low. Only low and negative interest rates can make these investments economical. Everyone who has money to save can help by shifting money from consumption to saving and investing. The more people act like capitalists, the lower interest rates may go, and the more sustainable the economy may become.

Capitalists think that money spent on a frivolous item is money wasted, because when you invest your money, you will have more money that you can invest again. Capitalists hardly care about interest rates. They will save and invest anyway because of their capitalist spirit. Rich people may be encouraged to save even more if luxuries that use a lot of natural resources and energy aren’t available any more. One can think of luxury yachts, private jets, but also of travel by airplane for holidays. When energy becomes a constraint, local products may replace long-distance trade.

Featured image: Beautiful countryside in southern California. James McCauley (2005). Wikimedia Commons. Public Domain.

1. A Brief History Of Humankind. Yuval Noah Harari (2014). Harvil Secker.
2. Poor Because of Money. Henk van Arkel and Camilo Ramada (2001). Strohalm.